Seasonal Update - December 2018

Chris Materne, Pastoral Production, Alice Springs

El Niño ALERT continues as positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) weakens

The tropical Pacific Ocean remains ENSO-neutral, despite some indicators reaching El Niño levels. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have now exceeded El Niño thresholds for more than a month. However atmospheric indicators—such as trade winds, cloud patterns, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)—have not reached El Niño levels. This indicates that the tropical ocean and atmosphere are not reinforcing each other and remain 'uncoupled'. This coupling is required to establish and sustain any ENSO event, and is what drives widespread Australian and global impacts.

The outlook for December 2018 to February 2019 indicates that:

• Average to Drier than average conditions are generally expected across much of the NT.
• Wetter than average conditions are more likely for the southern NT in December.
• Warmer than average days and nights are more likely across the entire NT.

For further information go to the Bureau of Meteorology website.

Chance of above the median rainfall (October to December 2018) (Left), Chance of above the median maximum temperature. (October to December 2018) (Right)