September - November climate summary for Central Australia

By Alison Kain, Climate Mate

The chance of exceeding the median rainfall (approx. 45-55 mm) is about 25-30 per cent.

According to the new BOM forecasting model, there is a 54 per cent chance it will be in the lowest tercile (that’s the lowest third of records).

Historically, the forecast at this point of the year has been right 55-65 per cent of the time. This is because the beginning of the monsoon/wet season can sometimes be influential in November.

Maximum and minimum temperatures are very likely to be above average.

The El Niño forecast has been downgraded to inactive although there is talk of an El Niño Modoki or Central Pacific El Niño forming and that can reduce the likelihood of summer rainfall.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) exceeded positive thresholds at the end of May. A positive IOD means reduced likelihood of rain through central and southern Australia in winter.

For more information contact Alison Kain at Alison.kain@usq.edu.au, and subscribe to the newsletter.